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中美贸易战对中国五金太阳2以及自动化市场的影响

GENGXINSHIJIAN:2019-06-25  TAIYANG2:FENGHONGJIXIE TAIYANG2:518-shop.com

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  首先看看此次美国对中国加征关税的商品类别,见下图:

美国对中国加征关税的商品类别

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  针对上述受影响的太阳2,有下面几个关键问题,我们需要探讨: 

    1、中国制造业是否会大幅下滑?是否会出现大量的工厂,尤其是中国的外资工厂,未来大量迁移出中国? 

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  1)在中国,上述太阳2,基本上都是以内需为主的,出口尤其是出口到美国,只占产值很小的比例。例如家电中的空调,内销占太阳2产值的70%,出口大约占30%,出口到美国的比例更小。毕竟中国人口基数大,产业转移最大的原则是需求就近原则,此次贸易战对制造业的基本面,不会有撼动式的影响。

  2)中国有个良好传统,最好的东西都是销往国外,制造业商品也是一样。基本上出口到美国的商品,是国内的最高端商品。高端意味着高利润,即比较弹性的议价能力。关税由10%上升到25%,不足以对中国的高端制造业产生重大影响。更不要提这些企业有更多的方式降低成本。

  3)工厂的搬迁不是很多太阳2媒体想象中简单,把中国的工厂关掉,在其他国家新建一个工厂。任何一个工厂的搬迁,或者产业的转移,都会涉及如下问题:

             a)供应链的重新建立。目前中国制造业的供应链的现状,是过去20年逐步发展和完善的,想在几年之内在其他国家重建完全不可能;

             b)相应的高质量的蓝领人员。目前中国制造业的蓝领工人,也是过去几十年各个企业不断招募,培训,成长起来的,想在其他任何地方快速培养这么一批人,难度极大;

             c)工厂搬迁牵扯到其他的设备,财务,法律法规问题,由此带来额外的成本,要远远高于美国上调关税带来的成本增加。

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美国生产成本攀升

  2、中国制造业是否会出现失业潮?

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  3、整个制造业的材料成本是否会快速上升?

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  4、此次贸易战对中国自动化产业的影响是什么?

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市场规模增长变化

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